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Optimal Capital Structure

Why do companies take on debt (Credit Risk) at all? Why not just use Equity? Credit Risk models are linked to Capital Structure theory (Modigliani-Miller and Trade-Off Theory).

The Trade-Off

Companies balance two opposing forces:

1. The Benefit: Tax Shield

  • Interest payments are tax-deductible.
  • More Debt = Less Tax = Higher Firm Value.
  • This encourages borrowing.

2. The Cost: Bankruptcy Costs (Financial Distress)

  • As Debt increases, the Probability of Default (PD) rises.
  • Direct Costs: Lawyers, court fees.
  • Indirect Costs: Customers leave, suppliers demand cash, employees quit.
  • This discourages borrowing.

The Optimal Point

The firm maximizes value where Marginal Benefit of Debt (Tax) = Marginal Cost of Debt (Bankruptcy Risk).

  • This optimal point determines the firm's "Target Leverage".

Leland-Toft Model

A famous model that combines Structural Credit Risk with Capital Structure. It calculates:

  1. The optimal amount of debt to issue.
  2. The optimal maturity of the debt.
  3. The yield spread the firm should pay.
Note

Dynamic: As asset volatility rises, the "Bankruptcy Cost" curve shifts up. Therefore, risky tech startups should have LOW debt (Optimal). Stable utility companies should have HIGH debt.

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