Hyperbolic Discounting – Present Bias & Impulsivity
What is Hyperbolic Discounting?
Hyperbolic discounting describes how people actually evaluate future rewards—with extreme present bias and time-inconsistent preferences that deviate dramatically from the rational exponential model.
Core Insight: We massively discount the immediate future (today vs tomorrow matters hugely) but barely distinguish between distant time periods (5 years vs 6 years feels similar). This creates self-control problems and chronic undersaving.
The Shape of Time Preferences
Visualization
Imagine valuing ₹100 at different time horizons:
| Time Period | Exponential (10% rate) | Hyperbolic (Reality) |
|---|---|---|
| Today | ₹100 | ₹100 |
| Tomorrow | ₹99.97 (tiny drop) | ₹60-70 (massive drop!) |
| 1 week | ₹99.81 | ₹50-55 |
| 1 month | ₹99.18 | ₹45-48 |
| 1 year | ₹90.91 | ₹40-42 |
| 5 years | ₹62.09 | ₹35-37 (flat!) |
| 10 years | ₹38.55 | ₹33-35 (barely changes) |
Key Difference: Hyperbolic discounting shows a steep initial drop then flattening for distant future.
Exponential vs Hyperbolic Comparison
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The Present Bias
Classic Experimental Evidence
Choice Set A (Both options immediate/short-term):
- Option 1: ₹100 today
- Option 2: ₹110 tomorrow
- Result: 70% choose ₹100 today (impatient!)
Choice Set B (Both options distant):
- Option 1: ₹100 in 365 days
- Option 2: ₹110 in 366 days
- Result: 85% choose ₹110 in 366 days (patient!)
Same trade-off (10% return for 1-day wait), opposite choices means Time-inconsistency!
Explanation: When "today" is involved, hyperbolic discounting creates massive preference for immediacy. When both options are distant, the flatter curve makes people patient.
Real-World Manifestations
Retirement Under-Saving
The Problem: Despite knowing retirement is crucial, people chronically undersave.
Hyperbolic Explanation:
| Year | Hyperbolic Thinking | Reality |
|---|---|---|
| Age 25 | "Retirement is 40 years away. I'll save next year." | 40 vs 39 years feels identical (flat curve) |
| Age 30 | "35 years to go. Plenty of time. Next year for sure." | 35 vs 34 years still feels same |
| Age 40 | "25 years left. I should start...maybe next year." | 25 vs 24 years barely different |
| Age 55 | "Oh no! Only 10 years left! Panic!" | Too late—compounding window closed |
The Trap: Future retirement always feels equally distant (flat hyperbolic curve), while present consumption always feels urgent (steep curve). Year after year, "next year" never comes.
Credit Card Debt Trap
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Procrastination Epidemic
Pattern: "I'll start my investment SIP next month."
What Happens:
- Today: Starting SIP feels effortful (steep discount on delayed reward)
- Next Month Arrives: It's now "today" again! Effort still feels huge, future reward still distant.
- Preference Reverses: Plan made last month (when it was distant) doesn't hold when "next month" becomes "this month".
Preference Reversals
Morning: "I'll definitely go to the gym after work!" (Confident—evening is distant).
Evening Arrives: "Eh, I'm tired. I'll go tomorrow." (Preference reverses—now couch is immediate pleasure, gym is immediate pain).
Same with Investing:
- Monday: "I'll rebalance my portfolio on Saturday" (planning mode, distant).
- Saturday: "Not today, I'll do it next weekend" (execution mode, effort feels immediate).
The Beta-Delta Model
Economists formalize hyperbolic discounting as:
Value = Beta × Delta^t × Outcome
Where:
- Delta: Standard exponential discount factor (like rational model).
- Beta: Present bias parameter (Beta is less than 1).
- Beta = 1: No present bias (rational).
- Beta = 0.7: Strong present bias (typical).
- Beta < 1 creates the hyperbolic steepness.
Example: with Beta = 0.7, Delta = 0.95:
- Value of ₹100 tomorrow = 0.7 times 0.95^1 times 100 = ₹66.50
- Value of ₹100 in 365 days = 0.7 times 0.95^365 times 100 = ~0.
- But: Value of ₹100 in 365 days viewed from day 364 = 0.7 times 0.95^1 times 100 = ₹66.50 again!
The Beta penalty applies only to immediate delays, creating time-inconsistency.
Financial Consequences
| Behavioral Pattern | Cost | Example |
|---|---|---|
| Retirement under-saving | Decades of lost compounding | Starting SIP at 40 vs 25 |
| Credit card debt | 18-36% APR on purchases | Average Indian carries significant revolving balance |
| Delayed investing | Market returns missed | Each year delayed loses compounding |
| Present consumption | Savings rate low | Insufficient emergency funds |
Breaking the Hyperbolic Trap
Pre-Commitment Devices
Concept: Lock in future behavior before hyperbolic discounting kicks in.
Examples:
- Auto-SIPs: Deduct monthly before you can say "next month"
- Auto-escalation: Increase SIP 1-2% annually with raises
- Retirement lock-in: EPF/PPF have withdrawal penalties
Why It Works: You make the decision when it's distant (rational mode), then automation executes when it's immediate.
Mental Time Travel
Technique: Visualize your future self concretely.
Research: Hal Hershfield showed people digitally-aged photos of themselves. Those who saw aged photos increased retirement savings significantly.
Policy Applications
Defaults That Work:
- Auto-enrollment in EPF/NPS: Inertia means most don't opt out.
- Save More Tomorrow (SAniZT) programs: Commit today to save more when you get future raises.
Key Takeaways
- Hyperbolic discounting: Steep near-term, flat long-term discount curve.
- Time-inconsistency: Preferences change based on temporal distance.
- Present bias: Immediate options always overweighted.
- Consequences: Retirement under-saving, credit debt, delayed investing.
- Solutions: Pre-commitment (auto-SIPs), mental time travel, defaults (auto-enrollment).
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